Deren vs Ulaanbaatar Statistics & Analysis

Deren

Jun 27, 2026 - 08:00

0 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 55%

Ulaanbaatar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Deren Ulaanbaatar ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631084

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ulaanbaatar win · Deren 0–2 Ulaanbaatar

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Deren vs Ulaanbaatar
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Deren 1.38 — Ulaanbaatar 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	16	13	2	1	41
2	Tuv Azarganuud	16	12	3	1	39
3	Khangarid	16	10	3	3	33
4	Deren	16	9	3	4	30
5	Hunters	16	7	3	6	24
6	Khovd Western	16	5	3	8	18
7	Khovd	16	4	0	12	12
8	Khoromkhon	16	2	0	14	6
9	Ulaangom City	16	1	1	14	4
10	Falcons	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	16	65	9	+56	41
2	Khangarid	16	59	19	+40	33
3	Deren	16	57	16	+41	30
4	Tuv Azarganuud	16	54	14	+40	39
5	Hunters	16	44	27	+17	24
6	Khovd Western	16	29	36	-7	18
7	Khovd	16	28	73	-45	12
8	Khoromkhon	16	27	86	-59	6
9	Ulaangom City	16	16	99	-83	4
10	Falcons	0	0	0	0	0