Statistics / Football / Peru. Segunda División / Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin

Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin Statistics & Analysis

Molinos El Pirata Molinos El Pirata
Jul 20, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
U. San Martin U. San Martin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 U. San Martin Molinos El Pirata ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1664900

Closing Odds 2.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Molinos El Pirata win · Molinos El Pirata 3–2 U. San Martin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices U. San Martin (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on U. San Martin (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Molinos El Pirata (1X2) 34.2 38.5 -4.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.4 -0.7
U. San Martin (1X2) 36.1 31.1 +5.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.2 +3.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.8 -3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on U. San Martin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.1%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Molinos El Pirata (1X2) 2.31 2.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.93 2.93 0.0
U. San Martin (1X2) 2.86 2.86 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Peruvian Segunda División
  • Fixture: Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Molinos El Pirata 1.28 — U. San Martin 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0
Segunda División Peru. Segunda División Predictions