Carlos A. Mannucci vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Statistics & Analysis

Carlos A. Mannucci

Jul 19, 2026 - 01:00

1 1.37

0 1.23

xG Accuracy: 64%

Deportivo Llacuabamba

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Carlos A. Mannucci Carlos A. Mannucci ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1613653

Closing Odds 1.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Carlos A. Mannucci win · Carlos A. Mannucci 1–0 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Llacuabamba (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Llacuabamba (1X2) by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Carlos A. Mannucci (1X2)	41.6	48.6	-6.9
Draw (1X2)	29.4	28.8	+0.6
Deportivo Llacuabamba (1X2)	29.0	22.7	+6.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.7	+4.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.3	-4.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.0% on Deportivo Llacuabamba (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.7%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Carlos A. Mannucci (1X2)	1.83	1.83
Draw (1X2)	3.09	3.09
Deportivo Llacuabamba (1X2)	3.92	3.92
Over 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	1.64	1.64

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Peruvian Segunda División
Fixture: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Deportivo Llacuabamba
Kickoff: 2026-07-19 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.0%
xG (showing): Carlos A. Mannucci 1.37 — Deportivo Llacuabamba 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. San Martin	16	26	17	+9	24
2	Molinos El Pirata	16	25	20	+5	25
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	23	10	+13	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	22	12	+10	30
5	Union Comercio	16	19	5	+14	32
6	Academia Cantolao	16	19	30	-11	14
7	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	14	12	+2	21
8	Cesar Vallejo	15	14	13	+1	19
9	San Marcos	14	1	44	-43	0