Grbalj vs Mogren Statistics & Analysis

Grbalj

Oct 10, 2026 - 12:30

2 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 68%

Mogren

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Grbalj Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13218620

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Grbalj 2–2 Mogren

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Grbalj vs Mogren
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Grbalj 1.37 — Mogren 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	11	5	5	1	20
2	Jedinstvo	11	6	2	3	20
3	Zeta	11	5	3	3	18
4	Grbalj	10	4	4	2	16
5	Iskra	11	5	1	5	16
6	Lovćen	11	5	1	5	16
7	Kom	10	4	3	3	15
8	Rudar	11	4	3	4	15
9	Mogren	11	2	4	5	10
10	Berane	11	0	2	9	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	11	20	14	+6	20
2	Jedinstvo	11	17	13	+4	20
3	Rudar	11	17	17	0	15
4	Zeta	11	16	13	+3	18
5	Lovćen	11	16	18	-2	16
6	Kom	10	14	11	+3	15
7	Mogren	11	14	15	-1	10
8	Grbalj	10	13	9	+4	16
9	Iskra	11	11	10	+1	16
10	Berane	11	7	25	-18	2