Mogren vs Mladost Lješkopolje Statistics & Analysis

Mogren

Sep 21, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 76%

Mladost Lješkopolje

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Mladost Lješkopolje Mladost Lješkopolje ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8693004

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Mladost Lješkopolje win · Mogren 1–2 Mladost Lješkopolje

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Second League
Fixture: Mogren vs Mladost Lješkopolje
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Mogren 1.29 — Mladost Lješkopolje 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	8	4	4	0	16
2	Jedinstvo	8	5	1	2	16
3	Zeta	8	4	3	1	15
4	Grbalj	7	3	3	1	12
5	Iskra	8	3	1	4	10
6	Lovćen	8	3	1	4	10
7	Rudar	8	2	3	3	9
8	Mogren	8	2	2	4	8
9	Kom	7	2	2	3	8
10	Berane	8	0	2	6	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	8	15	9	+6	16
2	Jedinstvo	8	14	9	+5	16
3	Zeta	8	12	7	+5	15
4	Lovćen	8	11	15	-4	10
5	Grbalj	7	10	6	+4	12
6	Mogren	8	10	10	0	8
7	Rudar	8	10	14	-4	9
8	Kom	7	7	7	0	8
9	Iskra	8	5	8	-3	10
10	Berane	8	5	14	-9	2