Statistics / Football / Belgium. Challenger Pro League / Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton

Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton Statistics & Analysis

Lokeren-Temse Lokeren-Temse
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.35
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 82%
Excelsior Virton Excelsior Virton
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lokeren-Temse Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679035

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Lokeren-Temse 1–1 Excelsior Virton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.26 percentage points on Lokeren-Temse (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lokeren-Temse (1X2) 35.5 45.8 -10.3
Draw (1X2) 29.0 23.0 +6.0
Excelsior Virton (1X2) 35.5 31.2 +4.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 61.2 -10.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 38.8 +10.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.8%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lokeren-Temse (1X2) 1.94 2.08 -3.3
Draw (1X2) 4.29 4.13 +0.9
Excelsior Virton (1X2) 3.3 3.05 +2.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.56 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.49 2.46 +0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenger Pro League
  • Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.5% · Draw 29.0% · Away 35.5%
  • xG (showing): Lokeren-Temse 1.35 — Excelsior Virton 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +21.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Lokeren-Temse & Excelsior Virton!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Challenger Pro League Challenger Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 5 0 1 15
2 Dender 6 5 0 1 15
3 AS Eupen 5 4 0 1 12
4 Francs Borains 5 4 0 1 12
5 Excelsior Virton 5 3 1 1 10
6 Lokeren-Temse 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sporting Hasselt 6 3 0 3 9
8 Club Brugge II 5 2 2 1 8
9 KRC Genk II 6 2 1 3 7
10 Liège 6 1 2 3 5
11 KAA Gent II 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 1 2 2 5
13 Patro Eisden 6 1 0 5 3
14 Seraing United 6 0 2 4 2
15 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 13 5 +8 15
2 Lokeren-Temse 6 13 11 +2 10
3 KRC Genk II 6 12 14 -2 7
4 AS Eupen 5 11 5 +6 12
5 Club Brugge II 5 11 10 +1 8
6 Liège 6 10 13 -3 5
7 Francs Borains 5 9 4 +5 12
8 Dender 6 8 2 +6 15
9 Excelsior Virton 5 8 2 +6 10
10 Patro Eisden 6 7 12 -5 3
11 RSC Anderlecht II 6 7 15 -8 1
12 KAA Gent II 5 6 9 -3 5
13 Seraing United 6 6 12 -6 2
14 Sporting Hasselt 6 4 7 -3 9
15 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 4 8 -4 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Excelsior Virton 5 2.0 0.7 +1.3 10
2 AS Eupen 5 1.4 1.3 +0.1 12
3 Lokeren-Temse 6 1.3 1.4 -0.1 10
4 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0.7 2.0 -1.3 1
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 — — — 15
6 Dender 6 — — — 15
7 Francs Borains 5 — — — 12
8 Sporting Hasselt 6 — — — 9
9 Club Brugge II 5 — — — 8
10 KRC Genk II 6 — — — 7
11 Liège 6 — — — 5
12 KAA Gent II 5 — — — 5
13 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 — — — 5
14 Patro Eisden 6 — — — 3
15 Seraing United 6 — — — 2