Statistics / Football / Belgium. Challenger Pro League / AS Eupen vs Liège

AS Eupen vs Liège Statistics & Analysis

AS Eupen AS Eupen
Sep 19, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.69
1 1.51
xG Accuracy: 61%
Liège Liège
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AS Eupen AS Eupen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8706639

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AS Eupen win · AS Eupen 3–1 Liège
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Liège (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Liège (1X2) by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AS Eupen (1X2) 40.8 53.4 -12.6
Draw (1X2) 26.1 24.4 +1.6
Liège (1X2) 33.1 22.2 +10.9
Over 2.5 goals 62.0 56.7 +5.3
Under 2.5 goals 38.0 43.3 -5.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.1% on Liège (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.2%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
AS Eupen (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Liège (1X2) 4.28 4.28 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenger Pro League
  • Fixture: AS Eupen vs Liège
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): AS Eupen 1.69 — Liège 1.51 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.9% · Implied: 56.4% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Challenger Pro League Challenger Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 5 0 1 15
2 Dender 6 5 0 1 15
3 AS Eupen 5 4 0 1 12
4 Francs Borains 5 4 0 1 12
5 Excelsior Virton 5 3 1 1 10
6 Lokeren-Temse 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sporting Hasselt 6 3 0 3 9
8 Club Brugge II 5 2 2 1 8
9 KRC Genk II 6 2 1 3 7
10 Liège 6 1 2 3 5
11 KAA Gent II 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 1 2 2 5
13 Patro Eisden 6 1 0 5 3
14 Seraing United 6 0 2 4 2
15 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 13 5 +8 15
2 Lokeren-Temse 6 13 11 +2 10
3 KRC Genk II 6 12 14 -2 7
4 AS Eupen 5 11 5 +6 12
5 Club Brugge II 5 11 10 +1 8
6 Liège 6 10 13 -3 5
7 Francs Borains 5 9 4 +5 12
8 Dender 6 8 2 +6 15
9 Excelsior Virton 5 8 2 +6 10
10 Patro Eisden 6 7 12 -5 3
11 RSC Anderlecht II 6 7 15 -8 1
12 KAA Gent II 5 6 9 -3 5
13 Seraing United 6 6 12 -6 2
14 Sporting Hasselt 6 4 7 -3 9
15 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 4 8 -4 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Excelsior Virton 5 2.0 0.7 +1.3 10
2 AS Eupen 5 1.4 1.3 +0.1 12
3 Lokeren-Temse 6 1.3 1.4 -0.1 10
4 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0.7 2.0 -1.3 1
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 — — — 15
6 Dender 6 — — — 15
7 Francs Borains 5 — — — 12
8 Sporting Hasselt 6 — — — 9
9 Club Brugge II 5 — — — 8
10 KRC Genk II 6 — — — 7
11 Liège 6 — — — 5
12 KAA Gent II 5 — — — 5
13 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 — — — 5
14 Patro Eisden 6 — — — 3
15 Seraing United 6 — — — 2