Statistics / Football / Belgium. Challenger Pro League / Lierse Kempenzonen vs Liège

Lierse Kempenzonen vs Liège Statistics & Analysis

Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.36
0 1.57
xG Accuracy: 45%
Liège Liège
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Liège Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361042

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Lierse Kempenzonen 0–0 Liège
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.93 percentage points on Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Liège (1X2) by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2) 31.7 36.3 -4.6
Draw (1X2) 27.3 26.4 +0.9
Liège (1X2) 41.0 37.3 +3.6
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 53.8 +2.3
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 46.2 -2.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.0% on Liège (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2) 2.94 2.62 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 -0.0
Liège (1X2) 2.31 2.55 -3.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenger Pro League
  • Fixture: Lierse Kempenzonen vs Liège
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.7% · Draw 27.3% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Lierse Kempenzonen 1.36 — Liège 1.57 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Challenger Pro League Challenger Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 5 0 1 15
2 Dender 6 5 0 1 15
3 AS Eupen 5 4 0 1 12
4 Francs Borains 5 4 0 1 12
5 Excelsior Virton 5 3 1 1 10
6 Lokeren-Temse 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sporting Hasselt 6 3 0 3 9
8 Club Brugge II 5 2 2 1 8
9 KRC Genk II 6 2 1 3 7
10 Liège 6 1 2 3 5
11 KAA Gent II 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 1 2 2 5
13 Patro Eisden 6 1 0 5 3
14 Seraing United 6 0 2 4 2
15 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 13 5 +8 15
2 Lokeren-Temse 6 13 11 +2 10
3 KRC Genk II 6 12 14 -2 7
4 AS Eupen 5 11 5 +6 12
5 Club Brugge II 5 11 10 +1 8
6 Liège 6 10 13 -3 5
7 Francs Borains 5 9 4 +5 12
8 Dender 6 8 2 +6 15
9 Excelsior Virton 5 8 2 +6 10
10 Patro Eisden 6 7 12 -5 3
11 RSC Anderlecht II 6 7 15 -8 1
12 KAA Gent II 5 6 9 -3 5
13 Seraing United 6 6 12 -6 2
14 Sporting Hasselt 6 4 7 -3 9
15 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 4 8 -4 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Excelsior Virton 5 2.0 0.7 +1.3 10
2 AS Eupen 5 1.4 1.3 +0.1 12
3 Lokeren-Temse 6 1.3 1.4 -0.1 10
4 RSC Anderlecht II 6 0.7 2.0 -1.3 1
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 6 — — — 15
6 Dender 6 — — — 15
7 Francs Borains 5 — — — 12
8 Sporting Hasselt 6 — — — 9
9 Club Brugge II 5 — — — 8
10 KRC Genk II 6 — — — 7
11 Liège 6 — — — 5
12 KAA Gent II 5 — — — 5
13 Lierse Kempenzonen 5 — — — 5
14 Patro Eisden 6 — — — 3
15 Seraing United 6 — — — 2