Seraing United vs Lierse Kempenzonen Statistics & Analysis

Seraing United

Aug 30, 2026 - 17:15

1 1.53

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 78%

Lierse Kempenzonen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Seraing United Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5302170

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Seraing United 1–1 Lierse Kempenzonen

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2) by about 2.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Seraing United (1X2)	41.0	44.8	-3.8
Draw (1X2)	27.6	26.6	+1.0
Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2)	31.4	28.6	+2.8
Over 2.5 goals	54.9	53.4	+1.5
Under 2.5 goals	45.1	46.6	-1.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.4% on Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.6%. The difference — about 2.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Seraing United (1X2)	2.12	2.12
Draw (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Lierse Kempenzonen (1X2)	3.32	3.32
Over 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Challenger Pro League
Fixture: Seraing United vs Lierse Kempenzonen
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 27.6% · Away 31.4%
xG (showing): Seraing United 1.53 — Lierse Kempenzonen 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.1% · Over 2.5 54.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.5% · No 40.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 59.5% · No 40.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Challenger Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Beerschot Wilrijk	6	5	0	1	15
2	Dender	6	5	0	1	15
3	AS Eupen	5	4	0	1	12
4	Francs Borains	5	4	0	1	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	3	1	1	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	3	1	2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	3	0	3	9
8	Club Brugge II	5	2	2	1	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	2	1	3	7
10	Liège	6	1	2	3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	1	2	2	5
12	Lierse Kempenzonen	5	1	2	2	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	1	0	5	3
14	Seraing United	6	0	2	4	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Beerschot Wilrijk	6	13	5	+8	15
2	Lokeren-Temse	6	13	11	+2	10
3	KRC Genk II	6	12	14	-2	7
4	AS Eupen	5	11	5	+6	12
5	Club Brugge II	5	11	10	+1	8
6	Liège	6	10	13	-3	5
7	Francs Borains	5	9	4	+5	12
8	Dender	6	8	2	+6	15
9	Excelsior Virton	5	8	2	+6	10
10	Patro Eisden	6	7	12	-5	3
11	RSC Anderlecht II	6	7	15	-8	1
12	KAA Gent II	5	6	9	-3	5
13	Seraing United	6	6	12	-6	2
14	Sporting Hasselt	6	4	7	-3	9
15	Lierse Kempenzonen	5	4	8	-4	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Excelsior Virton	5	2.0	0.7	+1.3	10
2	AS Eupen	5	1.4	1.3	+0.1	12
3	Lokeren-Temse	6	1.3	1.4	-0.1	10
4	RSC Anderlecht II	6	0.7	2.0	-1.3	1
5	Beerschot Wilrijk	6	—	—	—	15
6	Dender	6	—	—	—	15
7	Francs Borains	5	—	—	—	12
8	Sporting Hasselt	6	—	—	—	9
9	Club Brugge II	5	—	—	—	8
10	KRC Genk II	6	—	—	—	7
11	Liège	6	—	—	—	5
12	KAA Gent II	5	—	—	—	5
13	Lierse Kempenzonen	5	—	—	—	5
14	Patro Eisden	6	—	—	—	3
15	Seraing United	6	—	—	—	2