Statistics / Football / Belgium. Jupiler Pro League / KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Statistics & Analysis

KV Mechelen KV Mechelen
Oct 11, 2026 - 17:15
4 1.63
3 1.84
xG Accuracy: 38%
St. Truiden St. Truiden
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 St. Truiden KV Mechelen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13233461

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result KV Mechelen win · KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Jupiler Pro League
  • Fixture: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.5% · Draw 25.4% · Away 42.2%
  • xG (showing): KV Mechelen 1.63 — St. Truiden 1.84 (total xG ≈ 3.47)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.4% · Implied: 56.6% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Jupiler Pro League Jupiler Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gent 8 7 1 0 22
2 Club Brugge KV 8 7 0 1 21
3 Charleroi 8 7 0 1 21
4 Union St. Gilloise 8 6 2 0 20
5 Anderlecht 8 5 1 2 16
6 KVC Westerlo 8 4 1 3 13
7 Genk 8 3 3 2 12
8 Zulte Waregem 8 3 2 3 11
9 Standard Liege 8 3 2 3 11
10 Lommel United 8 3 2 3 11
11 Waasland-beveren 8 3 0 5 9
12 St. Truiden 8 2 2 4 8
13 Antwerp 8 2 1 5 7
14 KV Mechelen 8 1 3 4 6
15 OH Leuven 8 1 2 5 5
16 RAAL La Louvière 8 1 1 6 4
17 Kortrijk 8 1 0 7 3
18 Cercle Brugge 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 8 22 4 +18 20
2 KVC Westerlo 8 20 17 +3 13
3 Club Brugge KV 8 19 4 +15 21
4 Charleroi 8 16 7 +9 21
5 Genk 8 16 12 +4 12
6 Gent 8 15 4 +11 22
7 St. Truiden 8 15 16 -1 8
8 Standard Liege 8 13 13 0 11
9 Antwerp 8 12 20 -8 7
10 Zulte Waregem 8 10 9 +1 11
11 Anderlecht 8 9 6 +3 16
12 Lommel United 8 9 9 0 11
13 Cercle Brugge 8 9 16 -7 3
14 KV Mechelen 8 9 17 -8 6
15 Waasland-beveren 8 8 14 -6 9
16 RAAL La Louvière 8 8 18 -10 4
17 OH Leuven 8 6 14 -8 5
18 Kortrijk 8 2 18 -16 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Brugge KV 8 13.8 5.0 +8.8 21
2 Genk 8 10.9 3.4 +7.5 12
3 Charleroi 8 9.2 4.6 +4.6 21
4 Gent 8 6.4 2.8 +3.6 22
5 Union St. Gilloise 8 8.1 5.3 +2.8 20
6 Anderlecht 8 6.3 3.6 +2.7 16
7 Zulte Waregem 8 7.6 6.4 +1.2 11
8 Lommel United 8 6.3 5.8 +0.5 11
9 St. Truiden 8 9.6 9.6 0.0 8
10 Standard Liege 8 8.3 8.8 -0.5 11
11 Cercle Brugge 8 8.8 10.2 -1.4 3
12 KV Mechelen 8 6.2 7.8 -1.6 6
13 KVC Westerlo 8 6.9 9.8 -2.9 13
14 Antwerp 8 5.8 8.8 -3.0 7
15 Waasland-beveren 8 6.4 11.4 -5.0 9
16 Kortrijk 8 4.2 9.3 -5.1 3
17 OH Leuven 8 6.1 11.4 -5.3 5
18 RAAL La Louvière 8 5.6 12.4 -6.8 4
Jupiler Pro League Belgium. Jupiler Pro League Predictions