Statistics / Football / Belgium. Jupiler Pro League / Genk vs Gent

Genk vs Gent Statistics & Analysis

Genk Genk
Sep 13, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.21
1 0.85
xG Accuracy: 91%
Gent Gent
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Genk Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7441877

Closing Odds 3.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Genk 1–1 Gent
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.72 percentage points on Genk (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Genk (1X2) 43.1 42.9 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 31.7 28.9 +2.8
Gent (1X2) 25.2 28.2 -3.0
Over 2.5 goals 34.0 49.4 -15.4
Under 2.5 goals 66.0 50.6 +15.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 50.6%. The difference — about 15.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Genk (1X2) 2.22 2.26 -0.7
Draw (1X2) 3.36 3.35 +0.1
Gent (1X2) 3.5 3.43 +0.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.96 1.97 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.92 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Jupiler Pro League
  • Fixture: Genk vs Gent
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.1% · Draw 31.7% · Away 25.2%
  • xG (showing): Genk 1.21 — Gent 0.85 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 48.9% · Probability edge: +17.1 pts · Est. EV: +38.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Jupiler Pro League Jupiler Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 6 1 0 19
2 Gent 7 6 1 0 19
3 Club Brugge KV 7 6 0 1 18
4 Charleroi 7 6 0 1 18
5 Anderlecht 7 4 1 2 13
6 Zulte Waregem 7 3 2 2 11
7 Standard Liege 7 3 2 2 11
8 KVC Westerlo 7 3 1 3 10
9 Waasland-beveren 7 3 0 4 9
10 Genk 7 2 3 2 9
11 St. Truiden 7 2 2 3 8
12 Lommel United 7 2 2 3 8
13 Antwerp 7 2 1 4 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 1 1 5 4
15 OH Leuven 7 1 1 5 4
16 Kortrijk 7 1 0 6 3
17 Cercle Brugge 7 0 3 4 3
18 KV Mechelen 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 21 3 +18 19
2 Club Brugge KV 7 15 3 +12 18
3 Charleroi 7 15 7 +8 18
4 KVC Westerlo 7 15 16 -1 10
5 Gent 7 13 4 +9 19
6 Standard Liege 7 13 12 +1 11
7 Genk 7 13 12 +1 9
8 St. Truiden 7 12 12 0 8
9 Antwerp 7 11 15 -4 7
10 Zulte Waregem 7 10 7 +3 11
11 Cercle Brugge 7 8 14 -6 3
12 Anderlecht 7 7 5 +2 13
13 Waasland-beveren 7 7 11 -4 9
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 7 14 -7 4
15 Lommel United 7 6 8 -2 8
16 OH Leuven 7 5 13 -8 4
17 KV Mechelen 7 5 14 -9 3
18 Kortrijk 7 2 15 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Genk 7 9.1 2.7 +6.4 9
2 Club Brugge KV 7 8.9 3.9 +5.0 18
3 Charleroi 7 7.5 3.1 +4.4 18
4 Union St. Gilloise 7 6.8 3.9 +2.9 19
5 Gent 7 4.9 2.0 +2.9 19
6 Anderlecht 7 5.5 3.0 +2.5 13
7 Zulte Waregem 7 6.8 4.9 +1.9 11
8 Lommel United 7 4.8 5.1 -0.3 8
9 Standard Liege 7 6.8 7.2 -0.4 11
10 St. Truiden 7 8.2 8.9 -0.7 8
11 KV Mechelen 7 5.4 6.4 -1.0 3
12 Cercle Brugge 7 8.1 9.3 -1.2 3
13 Antwerp 7 4.9 6.4 -1.5 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 4.5 7.5 -3.0 4
15 Kortrijk 7 3.5 7.6 -4.1 3
16 Waasland-beveren 7 5.7 9.9 -4.2 9
17 KVC Westerlo 7 4.4 8.9 -4.5 10
18 OH Leuven 7 4.8 10.1 -5.3 4