Statistics / Football / Belgium. Jupiler Pro League / OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge

OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge Statistics & Analysis

OH Leuven OH Leuven
Sep 12, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.59
1 1.84
xG Accuracy: 68%
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cercle Brugge Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7468705

Closing Odds 2.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · OH Leuven 1–1 Cercle Brugge
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Cercle Brugge (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
OH Leuven (1X2) 34.0 38.4 -4.4
Draw (1X2) 25.4 26.2 -0.8
Cercle Brugge (1X2) 40.6 35.4 +5.2
Over 2.5 goals 66.6 59.9 +6.8
Under 2.5 goals 33.4 40.1 -6.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.9%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
OH Leuven (1X2) 2.52 2.52 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Cercle Brugge (1X2) 2.73 2.73 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.4 2.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Jupiler Pro League
  • Fixture: OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.0% · Draw 25.4% · Away 40.6%
  • xG (showing): OH Leuven 1.59 — Cercle Brugge 1.84 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.6% · Implied: 59.1% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.2% · No 31.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Jupiler Pro League Jupiler Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 6 1 0 19
2 Gent 7 6 1 0 19
3 Club Brugge KV 7 6 0 1 18
4 Charleroi 7 6 0 1 18
5 Anderlecht 7 4 1 2 13
6 Zulte Waregem 7 3 2 2 11
7 Standard Liege 7 3 2 2 11
8 KVC Westerlo 7 3 1 3 10
9 Waasland-beveren 7 3 0 4 9
10 Genk 7 2 3 2 9
11 St. Truiden 7 2 2 3 8
12 Lommel United 7 2 2 3 8
13 Antwerp 7 2 1 4 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 1 1 5 4
15 OH Leuven 7 1 1 5 4
16 Kortrijk 7 1 0 6 3
17 Cercle Brugge 7 0 3 4 3
18 KV Mechelen 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 21 3 +18 19
2 Club Brugge KV 7 15 3 +12 18
3 Charleroi 7 15 7 +8 18
4 KVC Westerlo 7 15 16 -1 10
5 Gent 7 13 4 +9 19
6 Standard Liege 7 13 12 +1 11
7 Genk 7 13 12 +1 9
8 St. Truiden 7 12 12 0 8
9 Antwerp 7 11 15 -4 7
10 Zulte Waregem 7 10 7 +3 11
11 Cercle Brugge 7 8 14 -6 3
12 Anderlecht 7 7 5 +2 13
13 Waasland-beveren 7 7 11 -4 9
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 7 14 -7 4
15 Lommel United 7 6 8 -2 8
16 OH Leuven 7 5 13 -8 4
17 KV Mechelen 7 5 14 -9 3
18 Kortrijk 7 2 15 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Genk 7 9.1 2.7 +6.4 9
2 Club Brugge KV 7 8.9 3.9 +5.0 18
3 Charleroi 7 7.5 3.1 +4.4 18
4 Union St. Gilloise 7 6.8 3.9 +2.9 19
5 Gent 7 4.9 2.0 +2.9 19
6 Anderlecht 7 5.5 3.0 +2.5 13
7 Zulte Waregem 7 6.8 4.9 +1.9 11
8 Lommel United 7 4.8 5.1 -0.3 8
9 Standard Liege 7 6.8 7.2 -0.4 11
10 St. Truiden 7 8.2 8.9 -0.7 8
11 KV Mechelen 7 5.4 6.4 -1.0 3
12 Cercle Brugge 7 8.1 9.3 -1.2 3
13 Antwerp 7 4.9 6.4 -1.5 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 4.5 7.5 -3.0 4
15 Kortrijk 7 3.5 7.6 -4.1 3
16 Waasland-beveren 7 5.7 9.9 -4.2 9
17 KVC Westerlo 7 4.4 8.9 -4.5 10
18 OH Leuven 7 4.8 10.1 -5.3 4