Statistics / Football / Montenegro. First League / Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic

Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Statistics & Analysis

Mladost DG Mladost DG
Aug 02, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Otrant-Olympic Otrant-Olympic
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mladost DG Mladost DG ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1954964

Closing Odds 2.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Mladost DG win · Mladost DG 2–1 Otrant-Olympic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Otrant-Olympic (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Otrant-Olympic (1X2) by about 3.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Mladost DG (1X2) 35.2 37.7 -2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.6 -0.9
Otrant-Olympic (1X2) 35.2 31.7 +3.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.7 +1.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.3 -1.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Otrant-Olympic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.7%. The difference — about 3.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Mladost DG (1X2) 2.43 2.43 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Otrant-Olympic (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Mladost DG 1.3 — Otrant-Olympic 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Otrant-Olympic 9 5 1 3 16
2 Dečić 9 4 3 2 15
3 Bokelj 9 4 3 2 15
4 Buducnost Podgorica 9 4 2 3 14
5 Sutjeska 9 4 2 3 14
6 Mornar 9 3 4 2 13
7 Mladost DG 9 3 1 5 10
8 Jezero 9 2 3 4 9
9 Petrovac 9 1 5 3 8
10 Arsenal Tivat 9 1 4 4 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Otrant-Olympic 9 15 10 +5 16
2 Buducnost Podgorica 9 11 7 +4 14
3 Sutjeska 9 11 7 +4 14
4 Dečić 9 10 7 +3 15
5 Mornar 9 9 7 +2 13
6 Jezero 9 9 15 -6 9
7 Bokelj 9 8 5 +3 15
8 Mladost DG 9 8 15 -7 10
9 Petrovac 9 7 9 -2 8
10 Arsenal Tivat 9 5 11 -6 7