Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League Women / Breidablik W vs Aktobe W

Breidablik W vs Aktobe W Statistics & Analysis

Breidablik W Breidablik W
Aug 04, 2026 - 14:00
1(0) 1.37
1(2) 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
Aktobe W Aktobe W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Breidablik W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 10:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2360542

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Breidablik W 1–1 Aktobe W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Aktobe W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Aktobe W (1X2) by about 12.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Breidablik W (1X2) 38.5 57.7 -19.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.4 +7.2
Aktobe W (1X2) 31.9 19.9 +12.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.0 -11.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.0 +11.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Aktobe W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.9%. The difference — about 12.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Breidablik W (1X2) 1.55 1.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0
Aktobe W (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.35 2.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Champions League Women
  • Fixture: Breidablik W vs Aktobe W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-04 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Breidablik W 1.37 — Aktobe W 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League Women UEFA Champions League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 1 1 0 0 3
2 Barcelona W 1 1 0 0 3
3 SL Benfica 1 1 0 0 3
4 Arsenal W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Chelsea W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
7 Manchester City W 1 0 1 0 1
8 Bayern Munich W 1 0 1 0 1
9 Paris Saint Germain W 1 0 1 0 1
10 Real Madrid W 1 0 1 0 1
11 OH Leuven W 1 0 1 0 1
12 Roma W 1 0 1 0 1
13 Juventus W 1 0 0 1 0
14 Austria Wien W 1 0 0 1 0
15 Häcken 1 0 0 1 0
16 Køge 1 0 0 1 0
17 Paris FC W 1 0 0 1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 1 8 0 +8 3
2 Barcelona W 1 5 2 +3 3
3 SL Benfica 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Manchester City W 1 2 2 0 1
5 Bayern Munich W 1 2 2 0 1
6 Paris FC W 1 2 5 -3 0
7 Arsenal W 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Chelsea W 1 1 0 +1 3
9 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 +1 3
10 Paris Saint Germain W 1 1 1 0 1
11 Real Madrid W 1 1 1 0 1
12 Juventus W 1 1 2 -1 0
13 OH Leuven W 1 0 0 0 1
14 Roma W 1 0 0 0 1
15 Austria Wien W 1 0 1 -1 0
16 Häcken 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Køge 1 0 1 -1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 8 -8 0
UEFA Champions League Women World. UEFA Champions League Women Predictions