Statistics / Football / Poland. I Liga / Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa Statistics & Analysis

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%
Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arka Gdynia Polonia Warszawa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13217518

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Polonia Warszawa win · Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Arka Gdynia 1.42 — Polonia Warszawa 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 10 6 3 1 21
2 Polonia Warszawa 10 5 2 3 17
3 Nieciecza 10 5 2 3 17
4 Lechia Gdansk 10 5 1 4 16
5 Warta Poznań 10 5 0 5 15
6 ŁKS Łódź 10 4 3 3 15
7 Ruch Chorzów 10 4 3 3 15
8 Miedz Legnica 10 4 2 4 14
9 Stal Rzeszów 10 4 2 4 14
10 Chrobry Głogów 10 3 3 4 12
11 Pogoń Siedlce 10 3 3 4 12
12 Odra Opole 10 3 3 4 12
13 Polonia Bytom 10 2 6 2 12
14 Stal Mielec 10 3 3 4 12
15 Podbeskidzie 10 1 8 1 11
16 Arka Gdynia 10 3 2 5 11
17 Unia Skierniewice 10 3 2 5 11
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 10 3 0 7 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 10 19 8 +11 21
2 Lechia Gdansk 10 19 16 +3 16
3 Warta Poznań 10 18 15 +3 15
4 Polonia Warszawa 10 17 13 +4 17
5 Nieciecza 10 16 14 +2 17
6 Stal Mielec 10 16 24 -8 12
7 Polonia Bytom 10 15 17 -2 12
8 Miedz Legnica 10 14 10 +4 14
9 ŁKS Łódź 10 13 11 +2 15
10 Podbeskidzie 10 13 14 -1 11
11 Arka Gdynia 10 12 13 -1 11
12 Unia Skierniewice 10 12 17 -5 11
13 Ruch Chorzów 10 11 11 0 15
14 Chrobry Głogów 10 11 12 -1 12
15 Puszcza Niepołomice 10 11 14 -3 9
16 Stal Rzeszów 10 11 17 -6 14
17 Pogoń Siedlce 10 10 11 -1 12
18 Odra Opole 10 8 9 -1 12
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