Polonia Warszawa vs Unia Skierniewice Statistics & Analysis

Polonia Warszawa

Aug 01, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 59%

Unia Skierniewice

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1804998

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Polonia Warszawa win · Polonia Warszawa 3–1 Unia Skierniewice

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Unia Skierniewice (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Unia Skierniewice (1X2) by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Polonia Warszawa (1X2)	37.0	54.3	-17.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.6	+6.0
Unia Skierniewice (1X2)	33.4	22.1	+11.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.5	-4.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.5	+4.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Unia Skierniewice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Polonia Warszawa (1X2)	1.75	1.75
Draw (1X2)	4.03	4.03
Unia Skierniewice (1X2)	4.29	4.29
Over 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	2.02	2.02

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: I Liga
Fixture: Polonia Warszawa vs Unia Skierniewice
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Polonia Warszawa 1.34 — Unia Skierniewice 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

I Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	5	3	1	18
2	Nieciecza	9	5	1	3	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	5	0	4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	4	3	2	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	3	3	3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	3	3	2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	3	3	3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	3	1	5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	0	8	1	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	2	0	6	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Warta Poznań	9	17	13	+4	15
2	Lechia Gdansk	9	17	15	+2	13
3	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	15	8	+7	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	9	15	12	+3	14
5	Miedz Legnica	9	14	9	+5	14
6	Nieciecza	9	14	12	+2	16
7	Polonia Bytom	9	14	17	-3	9
8	Stal Mielec	9	14	23	-9	9
9	ŁKS Łódź	9	13	9	+4	15
10	Podbeskidzie	9	12	14	-2	8
11	Chrobry Głogów	9	11	8	+3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	11	11	0	11
13	Stal Rzeszów	9	10	15	-5	14
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	10	15	-5	10
15	Pogoń Siedlce	8	9	7	+2	12
16	Ruch Chorzów	9	9	11	-2	12
17	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	8	12	-4	6
18	Odra Opole	9	7	9	-2	9