Statistics / Football / Poland. I Liga / Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Statistics & Analysis

Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.40
3 1.20
xG Accuracy: 42%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lechia Gdansk Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455807

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win · Lechia Gdansk 0–3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 9.53 percentage points on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lechia Gdansk (1X2) by about 13.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lechia Gdansk (1X2) 37.3 24.2 +13.1
Draw (1X2) 28.8 23.9 +4.8
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1X2) 33.9 51.9 -18.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.9 -8.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.1 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.3% on Lechia Gdansk (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.2%. The difference — about 13.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lechia Gdansk (1X2) 3.04 3.92 -7.1
Draw (1X2) 3.62 3.97 -2.4
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1X2) 2.25 1.83 +9.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.73 1.68 +1.7
Under 2.5 goals 2.13 2.22 -1.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Lechia Gdańsk vs Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 33.9%
  • xG (showing): Lechia Gdańsk 1.4 — Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +15.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9