Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura Statistics & Analysis

Olimpija Ljubljana

Oct 10, 2026 - 18:15

3 1.43

3 1.17

xG Accuracy: 39%

Mura

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Olimpija Ljubljana Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13249334

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Olimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 1. SNL
Fixture: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 18:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Olimpija Ljubljana 1.43 — Mura 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. SNL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maribor	10	5	5	0	20
2	Koper	10	5	3	2	18
3	Bravo	10	5	3	2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	14
5	Aluminij	10	3	4	3	13
6	Nafta	10	4	1	5	13
7	Celje	9	3	3	3	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	11
9	Mura	10	2	3	5	9
10	Radomlje	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Maribor	10	19	8	+11	20
2	Nafta	10	17	16	+1	13
3	Aluminij	10	16	11	+5	13
4	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	14	18	-4	11
5	Bravo	10	12	10	+2	18
6	Koper	10	11	8	+3	18
7	Celje	9	11	11	0	12
8	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	10	8	+2	14
9	Mura	10	10	21	-11	9
10	Radomlje	9	9	18	-9	5