Mura vs Celje Statistics & Analysis

Mura

Sep 20, 2026 - 15:30

0 1.13

0 1.47

xG Accuracy: 49%

Celje

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Celje Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8687316

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Mura 0–0 Celje

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mura (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mura (1X2) by about 8.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mura (1X2)	27.5	19.2	+8.3
Draw (1X2)	29.2	23.4	+5.8
Celje (1X2)	43.3	57.4	-14.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	53.0	-4.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.0	+4.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Mura (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.2%. The difference — about 8.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Mura (1X2)	4.93	4.93
Draw (1X2)	4.04	4.04
Celje (1X2)	1.65	1.65
Over 2.5 goals	1.8	1.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. SNL
Fixture: Mura vs Celje
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
xG (showing): Mura 1.13 — Celje 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. SNL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maribor	10	5	5	0	20
2	Koper	10	5	3	2	18
3	Bravo	10	5	3	2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	14
5	Aluminij	10	3	4	3	13
6	Nafta	10	4	1	5	13
7	Celje	9	3	3	3	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	11
9	Mura	10	2	3	5	9
10	Radomlje	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Maribor	10	19	8	+11	20
2	Nafta	10	17	16	+1	13
3	Aluminij	10	16	11	+5	13
4	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	14	18	-4	11
5	Bravo	10	12	10	+2	18
6	Koper	10	11	8	+3	18
7	Celje	9	11	11	0	12
8	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	10	8	+2	14
9	Mura	10	10	21	-11	9
10	Radomlje	9	9	18	-9	5