Statistics / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Olimpija Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje Statistics & Analysis

Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana
Sep 05, 2026 - 18:15
3 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 47%
Brinje-Grosuplje Brinje-Grosuplje
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6167562

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Olimpija Ljubljana win · Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Olimpija Ljubljana (1X2) 41.4 55.4 -14.1
Draw (1X2) 29.4 24.8 +4.6
Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2) 29.3 19.8 +9.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.9 -5.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.1 +5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.8%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Olimpija Ljubljana (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.83 3.83 0.0
Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2) 4.78 4.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. SNL
  • Fixture: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Olimpija Ljubljana 1.43 — Brinje-Grosuplje 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.7% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 18
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 12
8 Brinje-Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maribor 10 19 8 +11 20
2 Nafta 10 17 16 +1 13
3 Aluminij 10 16 11 +5 13
4 Brinje-Grosuplje 10 14 18 -4 11
5 Bravo 10 12 10 +2 18
6 Koper 10 11 8 +3 18
7 Celje 9 11 11 0 12
8 Olimpija Ljubljana 10 10 8 +2 14
9 Mura 10 10 21 -11 9
10 Radomlje 9 9 18 -9 5