Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje Statistics & Analysis

Aluminij

Aug 21, 2026 - 15:30

4 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 39%

Brinje-Grosuplje

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Aluminij Aluminij ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4025545

Closing Odds 2.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Aluminij win · Aluminij 4–2 Brinje-Grosuplje

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Aluminij (1X2)	35.6	39.5	-3.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	28.9	+0.7
Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2)	34.7	31.5	+3.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.7	+0.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.3	-0.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.5%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Aluminij (1X2)	2.41	2.41
Draw (1X2)	3.29	3.29
Brinje-Grosuplje (1X2)	3.02	3.02
Over 2.5 goals	2.01	2.01
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. SNL
Fixture: Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Aluminij 1.31 — Brinje-Grosuplje 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. SNL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maribor	10	5	5	0	20
2	Koper	10	5	3	2	18
3	Bravo	10	5	3	2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	14
5	Aluminij	10	3	4	3	13
6	Nafta	10	4	1	5	13
7	Celje	9	3	3	3	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	11
9	Mura	10	2	3	5	9
10	Radomlje	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Maribor	10	19	8	+11	20
2	Nafta	10	17	16	+1	13
3	Aluminij	10	16	11	+5	13
4	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	14	18	-4	11
5	Bravo	10	12	10	+2	18
6	Koper	10	11	8	+3	18
7	Celje	9	11	11	0	12
8	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	10	8	+2	14
9	Mura	10	10	21	-11	9
10	Radomlje	9	9	18	-9	5