Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Statistics & Analysis

Hapoel Katamon

Aug 09, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 58%

Hapoel Petah Tikva

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hapoel Katamon Hapoel Katamon ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966895

Closing Odds 2.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hapoel Katamon win · Hapoel Katamon 3–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.14 percentage points on Hapoel Petah Tikva (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 3.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hapoel Katamon (1X2)	35.6	34.8	+0.8
Draw (1X2)	29.7	29.3	+0.4
Hapoel Petah Tikva (1X2)	34.7	36.0	-1.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.3	+3.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.7	-3.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.3%. The difference — about 3.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Hapoel Katamon (1X2)	2.47	2.67	-2.4
Draw (1X2)	2.95	3.17	-1.8
Hapoel Petah Tikva (1X2)	2.88	2.58	+4.1
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	2.14	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	1.7	-0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Toto Cup Ligat Al
Fixture: Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Hapoel Katamon 1.31 — Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 51.0% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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