Dumbarton vs Forfar Athletic Statistics & Analysis

Dumbarton

Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.17

1 1.43

xG Accuracy: 71%

Forfar Athletic

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Forfar Athletic Dumbarton ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11239603

Closing Odds 2.17

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Dumbarton win · Dumbarton 2–1 Forfar Athletic

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.1 percentage points on Dumbarton (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE10.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Forfar Athletic (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Dumbarton (1X2)	29.3	42.2	-12.9
Draw (1X2)	29.4	26.4	+3.0
Forfar Athletic (1X2)	41.4	31.4	+9.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.3	-7.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.7	+7.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on Forfar Athletic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)	Implied Δ (pp)
Dumbarton (1X2)	1.98	2.17	-4.1
Draw (1X2)	3.59	3.47	+0.8
Forfar Athletic (1X2)	3.25	2.91	+3.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.7	-0.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.12	2.1	+0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: League Two
Fixture: Dumbarton vs Forfar Athletic
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Dumbarton 1.17 — Forfar Athletic 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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League Two — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Clyde	8	5	2	1	17
2	Stranraer	8	5	1	2	16
3	Spartans	8	3	3	2	12
4	Elgin City	8	3	2	3	11
5	Forfar Athletic	8	3	2	3	11
6	Edinburgh City	8	4	2	2	9
7	Annan Athletic	8	3	0	5	9
8	Dumbarton	8	3	0	5	9
9	Kelty Hearts	8	3	0	5	9
10	Stirling Albion	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Clyde	8	19	10	+9	17
2	Elgin City	8	19	14	+5	11
3	Spartans	8	19	15	+4	12
4	Edinburgh City	8	19	15	+4	9
5	Stranraer	8	17	8	+9	16
6	Kelty Hearts	8	11	18	-7	9
7	Stirling Albion	8	10	22	-12	5
8	Annan Athletic	8	9	10	-1	9
9	Forfar Athletic	8	8	13	-5	11
10	Dumbarton	8	8	14	-6	9