Annan Athletic vs Stirling Albion Statistics & Analysis

Annan Athletic

Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 64%

Stirling Albion

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Annan Athletic Stirling Albion ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11239602

Closing Odds 1.72

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Stirling Albion win · Annan Athletic 0–1 Stirling Albion

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.58 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE10.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Annan Athletic (1X2)	37.6	53.2	-15.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.2	+5.4
Stirling Albion (1X2)	32.9	22.6	+10.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.4	-11.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.6	+11.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.6%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)	Implied Δ (pp)
Annan Athletic (1X2)	1.72	1.72	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	3.76	3.78	-0.1
Stirling Albion (1X2)	4.05	4.05	+0.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.58	1.57	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	2.26	2.3	-0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: League Two
Fixture: Annan Athletic vs Stirling Albion
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Annan Athletic 1.35 — Stirling Albion 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

League Two — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Clyde	8	5	2	1	17
2	Stranraer	8	5	1	2	16
3	Spartans	8	3	3	2	12
4	Elgin City	8	3	2	3	11
5	Forfar Athletic	8	3	2	3	11
6	Edinburgh City	8	4	2	2	9
7	Annan Athletic	8	3	0	5	9
8	Dumbarton	8	3	0	5	9
9	Kelty Hearts	8	3	0	5	9
10	Stirling Albion	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Clyde	8	19	10	+9	17
2	Elgin City	8	19	14	+5	11
3	Spartans	8	19	15	+4	12
4	Edinburgh City	8	19	15	+4	9
5	Stranraer	8	17	8	+9	16
6	Kelty Hearts	8	11	18	-7	9
7	Stirling Albion	8	10	22	-12	5
8	Annan Athletic	8	9	10	-1	9
9	Forfar Athletic	8	8	13	-5	11
10	Dumbarton	8	8	14	-6	9