Elgin City vs Stranraer Statistics & Analysis

Elgin City

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.32

5 1.28

xG Accuracy: 33%

Stranraer

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Elgin City Stranraer ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8681205

Closing Odds 2.14

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Stranraer win · Elgin City 1–5 Stranraer

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Stranraer (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Elgin City (1X2)	36.1	42.8	-6.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.3	+3.3
Stranraer (1X2)	34.2	30.9	+3.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	53.7	-5.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	46.3	+5.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.3%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Elgin City (1X2)	2.14	2.14
Draw (1X2)	3.48	3.48
Stranraer (1X2)	2.97	2.97
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	1.75
Under 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: League Two
Fixture: Elgin City vs Stranraer
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Elgin City 1.32 — Stranraer 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.8% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Elgin City & Stranraer!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

League Two — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Clyde	8	5	2	1	17
2	Stranraer	8	5	1	2	16
3	Spartans	8	3	3	2	12
4	Elgin City	8	3	2	3	11
5	Forfar Athletic	8	3	2	3	11
6	Edinburgh City	8	4	2	2	9
7	Annan Athletic	8	3	0	5	9
8	Dumbarton	8	3	0	5	9
9	Kelty Hearts	8	3	0	5	9
10	Stirling Albion	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Clyde	8	19	10	+9	17
2	Elgin City	8	19	14	+5	11
3	Spartans	8	19	15	+4	12
4	Edinburgh City	8	19	15	+4	9
5	Stranraer	8	17	8	+9	16
6	Kelty Hearts	8	11	18	-7	9
7	Stirling Albion	8	10	22	-12	5
8	Annan Athletic	8	9	10	-1	9
9	Forfar Athletic	8	8	13	-5	11
10	Dumbarton	8	8	14	-6	9