Manchester United vs Tottenham Statistics & Analysis

Manchester United

Oct 10, 2026 - 16:30

1 2.04

1 1.02

xG Accuracy: 75%

Tottenham

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Manchester United Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13245616

Closing Odds 4.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Manchester United (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Manchester United (1X2) by about 3.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Manchester United (1X2)	59.6	56.2	+3.4
Draw (1X2)	23.4	22.9	+0.5
Tottenham (1X2)	17.0	20.9	-3.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 59.6% on Manchester United (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 56.2%. The difference — about 3.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Manchester United (1X2)	1.67	1.67
Draw (1X2)	4.1	4.1
Tottenham (1X2)	4.5	4.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Manchester United vs Tottenham
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 59.6% · Draw 23.4% · Away 17.0%
xG (showing): Manchester United 2.04 — Tottenham 1.02 (total xG ≈ 3.06)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 43.1% · Implied: 37.5% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brighton	5	16	5	+11	10
2	Manchester City	5	13	5	+8	15
3	Brentford	5	10	4	+6	9
4	Chelsea	5	10	12	-2	7
5	Newcastle	5	9	9	0	8
6	Arsenal	5	8	4	+4	12
7	Manchester United	5	8	8	0	5
8	Leeds	5	7	3	+4	9
9	Liverpool	5	7	4	+3	9
10	Ipswich	5	7	11	-4	6
11	Everton	5	6	3	+3	9
12	Hull City	5	6	4	+2	8
13	Bournemouth	5	6	8	-2	3
14	Sunderland	5	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	6	11	-5	4
16	Fulham	5	5	8	-3	2
17	Nottingham Forest	5	4	5	-1	5
18	Aston Villa	5	4	9	-5	4
19	Tottenham	5	2	8	-6	2
20	Coventry	5	1	10	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal	5	7.6	1.7	+5.9	12
2	Brentford	5	6.8	3.8	+3.0	9
3	Manchester City	5	5.1	2.1	+3.0	15
4	Brighton	5	6.4	4.0	+2.4	10
5	Manchester United	5	8.0	6.0	+2.0	5
6	Nottingham Forest	5	6.3	4.5	+1.8	5
7	Liverpool	5	4.8	5.0	-0.2	9
8	Chelsea	5	6.2	6.5	-0.3	7
9	Sunderland	5	3.2	3.7	-0.5	4
10	Everton	5	5.6	6.2	-0.6	9
11	Fulham	5	4.0	4.7	-0.7	2
12	Newcastle	5	4.0	4.8	-0.8	8
13	Bournemouth	5	4.3	5.2	-0.9	3
14	Crystal Palace	5	5.0	6.0	-1.0	4
15	Coventry	5	3.1	4.4	-1.3	3
16	Hull City	5	3.3	4.8	-1.5	8
17	Ipswich	5	5.0	7.2	-2.2	6
18	Leeds	5	2.7	4.9	-2.2	9
19	Tottenham	5	3.2	5.6	-2.4	2
20	Aston Villa	5	2.5	6.0	-3.5	4