Statistics / Football / England. Premier League / Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Statistics & Analysis

Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.43
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 58%
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nottingham Forest Crystal Palace ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13205424

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Crystal Palace win · Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 28.4% · Away 36.4%
  • xG (showing): Crystal Palace 1.43 — Nottingham Forest 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.84)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.0% · Implied: 50.3% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +5.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City 5 5 0 0 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 9
8 Hull City 5 2 2 1 8
9 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 6
12 Manchester United 5 1 2 2 5
13 Nottingham Forest 5 1 2 2 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brighton 5 16 5 +11 10
2 Manchester City 5 13 5 +8 15
3 Brentford 5 10 4 +6 9
4 Chelsea 5 10 12 -2 7
5 Newcastle 5 9 9 0 8
6 Arsenal 5 8 4 +4 12
7 Manchester United 5 8 8 0 5
8 Leeds 5 7 3 +4 9
9 Liverpool 5 7 4 +3 9
10 Ipswich 5 7 11 -4 6
11 Everton 5 6 3 +3 9
12 Hull City 5 6 4 +2 8
13 Bournemouth 5 6 8 -2 3
14 Sunderland 5 6 10 -4 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 6 11 -5 4
16 Fulham 5 5 8 -3 2
17 Nottingham Forest 5 4 5 -1 5
18 Aston Villa 5 4 9 -5 4
19 Tottenham 5 2 8 -6 2
20 Coventry 5 1 10 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arsenal 5 7.6 1.7 +5.9 12
2 Manchester City 5 5.2 2.1 +3.1 15
3 Brentford 5 6.8 3.8 +3.0 9
4 Brighton 5 6.4 4.0 +2.4 10
5 Manchester United 5 8.0 6.0 +2.0 5
6 Nottingham Forest 5 5.9 4.5 +1.4 5
7 Chelsea 5 6.2 6.5 -0.3 7
8 Liverpool 5 4.8 5.1 -0.3 9
9 Sunderland 5 3.2 3.7 -0.5 4
10 Everton 5 5.6 6.2 -0.6 9
11 Crystal Palace 5 5.0 5.6 -0.6 4
12 Fulham 5 4.0 4.7 -0.7 2
13 Bournemouth 5 4.3 5.2 -0.9 3
14 Coventry 5 1.6 2.5 -0.9 3
15 Newcastle 5 2.2 3.3 -1.1 8
16 Hull City 5 3.4 4.8 -1.4 8
17 Ipswich 5 5.0 7.2 -2.2 6
18 Leeds 5 2.7 4.9 -2.2 9
19 Tottenham 5 3.2 5.6 -2.4 2
20 Aston Villa 5 2.5 6.0 -3.5 4
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