Nottingham Forest vs Coventry Statistics & Analysis

Nottingham Forest

Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30

0 1.23

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 66%

Coventry

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Coventry Coventry ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704216

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Coventry win · Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Coventry (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Coventry (1X2) by about 20.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nottingham Forest (1X2)	33.4	58.9	-25.4
Draw (1X2)	30.2	24.8	+5.5
Coventry (1X2)	36.4	16.4	+20.0
Over 2.5 goals	46.1	53.5	-7.4
Under 2.5 goals	53.9	46.5	+7.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.4% on Coventry (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.4%. The difference — about 20.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Nottingham Forest (1X2)	1.64	1.64
Draw (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Coventry (1X2)	5.9	5.9
Over 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 30.2% · Away 36.4%
xG (showing): Nottingham Forest 1.23 — Coventry 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.52)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Coventry
Model: 36.4% · Implied: 16.4% · Probability edge: +20.0 pts · Est. EV: +13.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brighton	5	16	5	+11	10
2	Manchester City	5	13	5	+8	15
3	Brentford	5	10	4	+6	9
4	Chelsea	5	10	12	-2	7
5	Newcastle	5	9	9	0	8
6	Arsenal	5	8	4	+4	12
7	Manchester United	5	8	8	0	5
8	Leeds	5	7	3	+4	9
9	Liverpool	5	7	4	+3	9
10	Ipswich	5	7	11	-4	6
11	Everton	5	6	3	+3	9
12	Hull City	5	6	4	+2	8
13	Bournemouth	5	6	8	-2	3
14	Sunderland	5	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	6	11	-5	4
16	Fulham	5	5	8	-3	2
17	Nottingham Forest	5	4	5	-1	5
18	Aston Villa	5	4	9	-5	4
19	Tottenham	5	2	8	-6	2
20	Coventry	5	1	10	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal	5	4.9	1.0	+3.9	12
2	Brentford	5	5.5	1.9	+3.6	9
3	Manchester United	5	7.1	4.3	+2.8	5
4	Manchester City	5	3.8	1.2	+2.6	15
5	Brighton	5	5.2	3.3	+1.9	10
6	Nottingham Forest	5	3.0	2.1	+0.9	5
7	Chelsea	5	5.1	5.0	+0.1	7
8	Liverpool	5	3.8	3.7	+0.1	9
9	Crystal Palace	5	2.6	2.6	0.0	4
10	Sunderland	5	2.5	2.5	0.0	4
11	Leeds	5	1.9	2.2	-0.3	9
12	Coventry	5	1.6	2.5	-0.9	3
13	Everton	5	3.9	4.9	-1.0	9
14	Newcastle	5	2.2	3.3	-1.1	8
15	Hull City	5	2.0	3.1	-1.1	8
16	Bournemouth	5	2.8	4.1	-1.3	3
17	Fulham	5	2.1	3.5	-1.4	2
18	Ipswich	5	3.8	5.3	-1.5	6
19	Tottenham	5	1.5	4.7	-3.2	2
20	Aston Villa	5	0.6	4.7	-4.1	4