Statistics / Football / England. Premier League / Bournemouth vs Brentford

Bournemouth vs Brentford Statistics & Analysis

Bournemouth Bournemouth
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.58
2 1.92
xG Accuracy: 87%
Brentford Brentford
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Brentford Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7440966

Closing Odds 2.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Brentford (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bournemouth (1X2) 34.5 39.2 -4.7
Draw (1X2) 25.5 26.4 -0.9
Brentford (1X2) 40.0 34.4 +5.6
Over 2.5 goals 67.9 59.2 +8.7
Under 2.5 goals 32.1 40.8 -8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.9% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.2%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Bournemouth (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Brentford (1X2) 2.83 2.83 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Bournemouth vs Brentford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.5% · Draw 25.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Bournemouth 1.58 — Brentford 1.92 (total xG ≈ 3.5)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.9% · Implied: 57.8% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +15.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Bournemouth & Brentford!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City 5 5 0 0 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 9
8 Hull City 5 2 2 1 8
9 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 6
12 Manchester United 5 1 2 2 5
13 Nottingham Forest 5 1 2 2 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brighton 5 16 5 +11 10
2 Manchester City 5 13 5 +8 15
3 Brentford 5 10 4 +6 9
4 Chelsea 5 10 12 -2 7
5 Newcastle 5 9 9 0 8
6 Arsenal 5 8 4 +4 12
7 Manchester United 5 8 8 0 5
8 Leeds 5 7 3 +4 9
9 Liverpool 5 7 4 +3 9
10 Ipswich 5 7 11 -4 6
11 Everton 5 6 3 +3 9
12 Hull City 5 6 4 +2 8
13 Bournemouth 5 6 8 -2 3
14 Sunderland 5 6 10 -4 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 6 11 -5 4
16 Fulham 5 5 8 -3 2
17 Nottingham Forest 5 4 5 -1 5
18 Aston Villa 5 4 9 -5 4
19 Tottenham 5 2 8 -6 2
20 Coventry 5 1 10 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arsenal 5 4.9 1.0 +3.9 12
2 Brentford 5 5.5 1.9 +3.6 9
3 Manchester United 5 7.1 4.3 +2.8 5
4 Manchester City 5 3.8 1.2 +2.6 15
5 Brighton 5 5.2 3.3 +1.9 10
6 Nottingham Forest 5 3.0 2.1 +0.9 5
7 Chelsea 5 5.1 5.0 +0.1 7
8 Liverpool 5 3.8 3.7 +0.1 9
9 Crystal Palace 5 2.6 2.6 0.0 4
10 Sunderland 5 2.5 2.5 0.0 4
11 Leeds 5 1.9 2.2 -0.3 9
12 Coventry 5 1.6 2.5 -0.9 3
13 Everton 5 3.9 4.9 -1.0 9
14 Newcastle 5 2.2 3.3 -1.1 8
15 Hull City 5 2.0 3.1 -1.1 8
16 Bournemouth 5 2.8 4.1 -1.3 3
17 Fulham 5 2.1 3.5 -1.4 2
18 Ipswich 5 3.8 5.3 -1.5 6
19 Tottenham 5 1.5 4.7 -3.2 2
20 Aston Villa 5 0.6 4.7 -4.1 4