Statistics / Football / Belgium. Super League Women / Standard Liege W vs Genk W

Standard Liege W vs Genk W Statistics & Analysis

Standard Liege W Standard Liege W
Oct 03, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 55%
Genk W Genk W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Standard Liege W Genk W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11257025

Closing Odds 3.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Genk W win · Standard Liege W 0–2 Genk W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.01 percentage points on Genk W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Standard Liege W (1X2) 39.5 40.7 -1.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.9 +3.6
Genk W (1X2) 31.0 33.4 -2.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.1 -2.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.9 +2.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.9%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Standard Liege W (1X2) 2.02 2.16 -3.3
Draw (1X2) 3.34 3.4 -0.7
Genk W (1X2) 3.02 2.63 +4.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.8 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.88 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League Women
  • Fixture: Standard Liege W vs Genk W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Standard Liege W 1.39 — Genk W 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women Super League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Anderlecht W 4 4 0 0 12
2 Club Brugge W 4 3 1 0 10
3 OH Leuven W 4 2 2 0 8
4 RAAL La Louviere W 4 2 0 2 6
5 Standard Liege W 4 2 0 2 6
6 Genk W 4 1 1 2 4
7 Zulte-Waregem W 4 0 0 4 0
8 Gent W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 OH Leuven W 4 12 2 +10 8
2 Anderlecht W 4 10 0 +10 12
3 Club Brugge W 4 7 3 +4 10
4 Standard Liege W 4 6 11 -5 6
5 RAAL La Louviere W 4 4 5 -1 6
6 Zulte-Waregem W 4 4 9 -5 0
7 Gent W 4 3 13 -10 0
8 Genk W 4 2 5 -3 4