Anderlecht W vs RAAL La Louviere W Statistics & Analysis

Anderlecht W

Sep 26, 2026 - 11:30

2 1.39

0 1.21

xG Accuracy: 61%

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RAAL La Louviere W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Anderlecht W Anderlecht W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10081269

Closing Odds 1.21

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Anderlecht W win · Anderlecht W 2–0 RAAL La Louviere W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), RAAL La Louviere W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on RAAL La Louviere W (1X2) by about 19.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Anderlecht W (1X2)	39.5	73.1	-33.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	15.1	+14.4
RAAL La Louviere W (1X2)	31.0	11.8	+19.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on RAAL La Louviere W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.8%. The difference — about 19.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Anderlecht W (1X2)	1.21	1.21
Draw (1X2)	5.86	5.86
RAAL La Louviere W (1X2)	7.53	7.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Anderlecht W; market prices Anderlecht W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Anderlecht W 1.39 xG vs RAAL La Louviere W 1.21 → Anderlecht W 39.5%
Market: Anderlecht W ~73.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	3	3	0	0	9
2	Club Brugge W	3	3	0	0	9
3	OH Leuven W	3	2	1	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	2	0	1	6
5	Genk W	4	1	1	2	4
6	Standard Liege W	3	1	0	2	3
7	Zulte-Waregem W	3	0	0	3	0
8	Gent W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	OH Leuven W	3	11	1	+10	7
2	Anderlecht W	3	8	0	+8	9
3	Club Brugge W	3	6	2	+4	9
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	4	3	+1	6
5	Gent W	4	3	13	-10	0
6	Genk W	4	2	5	-3	4
7	Standard Liege W	3	2	8	-6	3
8	Zulte-Waregem W	3	1	5	-4	0