Statistics / Football / Belgium. Super League Women / Genk W vs Gent W

Genk W vs Gent W Statistics & Analysis

Genk W Genk W
Sep 25, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 60%
Gent W Gent W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Genk W Genk W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9572737

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Genk W win · Genk W 2–0 Gent W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.81 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gent W (1X2) by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Genk W (1X2) 38.5 52.2 -13.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.7 +5.9
Gent W (1X2) 31.9 24.1 +7.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.6 -3.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.4 +3.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Gent W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Genk W (1X2) 1.67 1.72 -1.0
Draw (1X2) 3.95 3.79 +1.2
Gent W (1X2) 3.65 3.73 -0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.63 1.81 -4.8
Under 2.5 goals 2.11 1.93 +4.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League Women
  • Fixture: Genk W vs Gent W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Genk W 1.37 — Gent W 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women Super League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Anderlecht W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Club Brugge W 3 3 0 0 9
3 OH Leuven W 3 2 1 0 7
4 RAAL La Louviere W 3 2 0 1 6
5 Genk W 4 1 1 2 4
6 Standard Liege W 3 1 0 2 3
7 Zulte-Waregem W 3 0 0 3 0
8 Gent W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 OH Leuven W 3 11 1 +10 7
2 Anderlecht W 3 8 0 +8 9
3 Club Brugge W 3 6 2 +4 9
4 RAAL La Louviere W 3 4 3 +1 6
5 Gent W 4 3 13 -10 0
6 Genk W 4 2 5 -3 4
7 Standard Liege W 3 2 8 -6 3
8 Zulte-Waregem W 3 1 5 -4 0
Super League Women Belgium. Super League Women Predictions