Anderlecht W vs Zulte-Waregem W Statistics & Analysis

Anderlecht W

Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00

2 1.41

0 1.19

xG Accuracy: 61%

Zulte-Waregem W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Anderlecht W Anderlecht W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8705052

Closing Odds 1.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Anderlecht W win · Anderlecht W 2–0 Zulte-Waregem W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Zulte-Waregem W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Zulte-Waregem W (1X2) by about 24.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Anderlecht W (1X2)	40.5	85.2	-44.7
Draw (1X2)	29.4	8.9	+20.5
Zulte-Waregem W (1X2)	30.1	5.9	+24.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.8	-13.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.2	+13.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on Zulte-Waregem W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.9%. The difference — about 24.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Anderlecht W (1X2)	1.06	1.06
Draw (1X2)	10.19	10.19
Zulte-Waregem W (1X2)	15.25	15.25
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.38

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Anderlecht W; market prices Anderlecht W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Anderlecht W 1.41 xG vs Zulte-Waregem W 1.19 → Anderlecht W 40.4%
Market: Anderlecht W ~85.2% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	3	3	0	0	9
2	Club Brugge W	3	3	0	0	9
3	OH Leuven W	3	2	1	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	2	0	1	6
5	Genk W	4	1	1	2	4
6	Standard Liege W	3	1	0	2	3
7	Zulte-Waregem W	3	0	0	3	0
8	Gent W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	OH Leuven W	3	11	1	+10	7
2	Anderlecht W	3	8	0	+8	9
3	Club Brugge W	3	6	2	+4	9
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	4	3	+1	6
5	Gent W	4	3	13	-10	0
6	Genk W	4	2	5	-3	4
7	Standard Liege W	3	2	8	-6	3
8	Zulte-Waregem W	3	1	5	-4	0