Standard Liege W vs OH Leuven W Statistics & Analysis

Standard Liege W

Sep 19, 2026 - 11:30

0 1.15

5 1.45

xG Accuracy: 28%

OH Leuven W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 OH Leuven W OH Leuven W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8661751

Closing Odds 1.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result OH Leuven W win · Standard Liege W 0–5 OH Leuven W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Standard Liege W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Standard Liege W (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Standard Liege W (1X2)	28.4	13.6	+14.8
Draw (1X2)	29.2	19.7	+9.5
OH Leuven W (1X2)	42.4	66.7	-24.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.4	-8.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.6	+8.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Standard Liege W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.6%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Standard Liege W (1X2)	6.54	6.54
Draw (1X2)	4.5	4.5
OH Leuven W (1X2)	1.33	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Super League Women
Fixture: Standard Liege W vs OH Leuven W
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Standard Liege W 1.15 — OH Leuven W 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	3	3	0	0	9
2	Club Brugge W	3	3	0	0	9
3	OH Leuven W	3	2	1	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	2	0	1	6
5	Genk W	4	1	1	2	4
6	Standard Liege W	3	1	0	2	3
7	Zulte-Waregem W	3	0	0	3	0
8	Gent W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	OH Leuven W	3	11	1	+10	7
2	Anderlecht W	3	8	0	+8	9
3	Club Brugge W	3	6	2	+4	9
4	RAAL La Louviere W	3	4	3	+1	6
5	Gent W	4	3	13	-10	0
6	Genk W	4	2	5	-3	4
7	Standard Liege W	3	2	8	-6	3
8	Zulte-Waregem W	3	1	5	-4	0