Statistics / Football / Peru. Liga Women / FBC Melgar W vs Sporting Cristal W

FBC Melgar W vs Sporting Cristal W Statistics & Analysis

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FBC Melgar W
Jul 24, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
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Sporting Cristal W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FBC Melgar W Sporting Cristal W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449012

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cristal W win · FBC Melgar W 0–3 Sporting Cristal W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Femenina Peru
  • Fixture: FBC Melgar W vs Sporting Cristal W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FBC Melgar W 1.32 — Sporting Cristal W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Women Liga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 9 1 0 28
2 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 8 1 1 25
3 Sporting Cristal W 10 7 0 3 21
4 Alianza Lima W 10 6 2 2 20
5 Yanapuma W 10 5 1 4 16
6 FBC Melgar W 10 4 2 4 14
7 Flamengo FBC W 10 3 2 5 11
8 Defensores W 10 2 1 7 7
9 UNSAAC W 10 1 3 6 6
10 Killas W 10 1 2 7 5
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 55 4 +51 28
2 Sporting Cristal W 10 30 9 +21 21
3 Alianza Lima W 10 26 7 +19 20
4 Flamengo FBC W 10 16 21 -5 11
5 FBC Melgar W 10 15 14 +1 14
6 Yanapuma W 10 15 21 -6 16
7 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 14 8 +6 25
8 Killas W 10 14 26 -12 5
9 Defensores W 10 11 29 -18 7
10 UNSAAC W 10 7 25 -18 6
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 4 43 -39 4
Liga Women Peru. Liga Women Predictions