Statistics / Football / World. World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe / Poland W vs Belgium W

Poland W vs Belgium W Statistics & Analysis

Poland W Poland W
Oct 13, 2026 - 16:00
2(4) 1.37
1(3) 1.43
xG Accuracy: 75%
Belgium W Belgium W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Belgium W Poland W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13660228

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Poland W win · Poland W 3–2 Belgium W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
  • Fixture: Poland W vs Belgium W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.5% · Draw 28.3% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Poland W 1.37 — Belgium W 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.8)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 46.9% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +2.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.3% · No 41.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Denmark W 6 4 2 0 14
2 Italy W 6 2 3 1 9
3 Sweden W 6 2 2 2 8
4 Serbia W 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy W 6 12 4 +8 9
2 Denmark W 6 12 5 +7 14
3 Sweden W 6 6 6 0 8
4 Serbia W 6 2 17 -15 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sweden W 6 11.2 0.1 +11.1 8
2 Italy W 6 6.9 0.6 +6.3 9
3 Serbia W 6 1.0 5.1 -4.1 1
4 Denmark W 6 — — — 14