Netherlands W vs Hungary W Statistics & Analysis

Oct 13, 2026 - 18:45
3 1.37
0 1.43
xG Accuracy: 43%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hungary W Netherlands W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13665811

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Netherlands W win · Netherlands W 3–0 Hungary W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
  • Fixture: Netherlands W vs Hungary W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.5% · Draw 28.3% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Netherlands W 1.37 — Hungary W 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.8)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Hungary W
  • Model: 37.2% · Implied: 5.9% · Probability edge: +31.3 pts · Est. EV: +5.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.3% · No 41.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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