Hungary W vs Netherlands W Statistics & Analysis

Hungary W

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.06

8 1.11

xG Accuracy: 11%

Netherlands W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Netherlands W Netherlands W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12702978

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Netherlands W win · Hungary W 0–8 Netherlands W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
Fixture: Hungary W vs Netherlands W
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 20.8% · Draw 26.9% · Away 52.3%
xG (showing): Hungary W 1.06 — Netherlands W 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 63.1% · Over 2.5 36.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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