Statistics / Football / World. World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe / Belgium W vs Poland W

Belgium W vs Poland W Statistics & Analysis

Belgium W Belgium W
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.06
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 72%
Poland W Poland W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Belgium W Belgium W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12704384

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Belgium W win · Belgium W 1–0 Poland W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
  • Fixture: Belgium W vs Poland W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.9% · Draw 31.0% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): Belgium W 1.06 — Poland W 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.1% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +20.3 pts · Est. EV: +38.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Denmark W 6 4 2 0 14
2 Italy W 6 2 3 1 9
3 Sweden W 6 2 2 2 8
4 Serbia W 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy W 6 12 4 +8 9
2 Denmark W 6 12 5 +7 14
3 Sweden W 6 6 6 0 8
4 Serbia W 6 2 17 -15 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sweden W 6 11.2 0.1 +11.1 8
2 Italy W 6 6.9 0.6 +6.3 9
3 Serbia W 6 1.0 5.1 -4.1 1
4 Denmark W 6 — — — 14