DC Power W vs Fort Lauderdale United W Statistics & Analysis

DC Power W

Sep 22, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.46

1 1.14

xG Accuracy: 83%

Fort Lauderdale United W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 DC Power W DC Power W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8989083

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result DC Power W win · DC Power W 2–1 Fort Lauderdale United W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
DC Power W (1X2)	42.9	55.7	-12.9
Draw (1X2)	29.2	24.8	+4.4
Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2)	27.9	19.5	+8.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.1	-2.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.9	+2.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.5%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
DC Power W (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Draw (1X2)	3.64	3.64
Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2)	4.64	4.64
Over 2.5 goals	1.84	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	1.92	1.92

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: DC Power W vs Fort Lauderdale United W
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): DC Power W 1.46 — Fort Lauderdale United W 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	5	1	1	16
2	DC Power W	7	3	2	2	11
3	Sporting JAX	7	3	2	2	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	3	1	3	10
5	Lexington W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	2	2	1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	1	0	5	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	13	6	+7	16
2	Sporting JAX	7	12	10	+2	11
3	DC Power W	7	11	8	+3	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	9	11	-2	10
5	Lexington W	5	8	3	+5	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	8	7	+1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	4	10	-6	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	4	14	-10	3