Sporting JAX vs Lexington W Statistics & Analysis

Sporting JAX

Sep 20, 2026 - 21:00

0 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Lexington W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sporting JAX Lexington W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8699363

Closing Odds 2.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Lexington W win · Sporting JAX 0–1 Lexington W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Lexington W (1X2), BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lexington W (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting JAX (1X2)	36.1	40.9	-4.8
Draw (1X2)	29.7	28.1	+1.6
Lexington W (1X2)	34.2	31.0	+3.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.4	+0.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.6	-0.8
BTTS Yes	54.5	51.5	+3.0
BTTS No	45.5	48.5	-3.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Lexington W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.0%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sporting JAX (1X2)	2.2	2.2
Draw (1X2)	3.2	3.2
Lexington W (1X2)	2.9	2.9
Over 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.8	1.8
BTTS Yes	1.8	1.8
BTTS No	1.91	1.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Sporting JAX vs Lexington W
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Sporting JAX 1.32 — Lexington W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	5	1	1	16
2	DC Power W	7	3	2	2	11
3	Sporting JAX	7	3	2	2	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	3	1	3	10
5	Lexington W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	2	2	1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	1	0	5	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	13	6	+7	16
2	Sporting JAX	7	12	10	+2	11
3	DC Power W	7	11	8	+3	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	9	11	-2	10
5	Lexington W	5	8	3	+5	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	8	7	+1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	4	10	-6	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	4	14	-10	3