Fort Lauderdale United W vs Dallas Trinity W Statistics & Analysis

Fort Lauderdale United W

Sep 18, 2026 - 23:30

1 1.17

2 1.43

xG Accuracy: 82%

Dallas Trinity W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Dallas Trinity W Dallas Trinity W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8234166

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Dallas Trinity W win · Fort Lauderdale United W 1–2 Dallas Trinity W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2) by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2)	29.3	19.0	+10.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	24.6	+4.8
Dallas Trinity W (1X2)	41.4	56.4	-15.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.2	-4.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.8	+4.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.0%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fort Lauderdale United W (1X2)	4.8	4.8
Draw (1X2)	3.72	3.72
Dallas Trinity W (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	1.98	1.98

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Fort Lauderdale United W vs Dallas Trinity W
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Fort Lauderdale United W 1.17 — Dallas Trinity W 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	5	1	1	16
2	DC Power W	7	3	2	2	11
3	Sporting JAX	7	3	2	2	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	3	1	3	10
5	Lexington W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	2	2	1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	1	0	5	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	13	6	+7	16
2	Sporting JAX	7	12	10	+2	11
3	DC Power W	7	11	8	+3	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	9	11	-2	10
5	Lexington W	5	8	3	+5	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	8	7	+1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	4	10	-6	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	4	14	-10	3