Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W Statistics & Analysis

Lexington W

Sep 11, 2026 - 23:30

0 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 64%

Carolina Ascent W

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lexington W Carolina Ascent W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 07:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7093633

Closing Odds 2.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Carolina Ascent W win · Lexington W 0–1 Carolina Ascent W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lexington W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lexington W (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lexington W (1X2)	35.6	33.1	+2.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.9	+1.7
Carolina Ascent W (1X2)	34.7	39.0	-4.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	46.0	+2.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.0	-2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Lexington W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.1%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Lexington W (1X2)	2.74	2.77	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	3.23	3.28	-0.1
Carolina Ascent W (1X2)	2.32	2.35	0.0
Over 2.5 goals	2.02	2.04	-0.1
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.74	+0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Lexington W 1.31 — Carolina Ascent W 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Lexington W & Carolina Ascent W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	5	1	1	16
2	DC Power W	7	3	2	2	11
3	Sporting JAX	7	3	2	2	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	3	1	3	10
5	Lexington W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	2	2	1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	1	0	5	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	13	6	+7	16
2	Sporting JAX	7	12	10	+2	11
3	DC Power W	7	11	8	+3	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	9	11	-2	10
5	Lexington W	5	8	3	+5	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	8	7	+1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	4	10	-6	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	4	14	-10	3