Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Statistics & Analysis

Carolina Ascent W

Aug 29, 2026 - 23:00

1 1.52

2 1.08

xG Accuracy: 67%

Tampa Bay Sun W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Carolina Ascent W Tampa Bay Sun W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5164721

Closing Odds 1.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tampa Bay Sun W win · Carolina Ascent W 1–2 Tampa Bay Sun W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) by about 6.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Carolina Ascent W (1X2)	45.8	56.2	-10.3
Draw (1X2)	28.8	25.0	+3.8
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2)	25.4	18.8	+6.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.4	-0.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.6	+0.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.4% on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 6.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Carolina Ascent W (1X2)	1.62	1.63	+0.3
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.66	-0.1
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2)	4.76	4.87	-0.2
Over 2.5 goals	1.94	1.95	+0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.82	1.83	-0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 25.4%
xG (showing): Carolina Ascent W 1.52 — Tampa Bay Sun W 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.7% · Probability edge: +2.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	5	1	1	16
2	DC Power W	7	3	2	2	11
3	Sporting JAX	7	3	2	2	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	3	1	3	10
5	Lexington W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	2	2	1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	1	0	5	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Carolina Ascent W	7	13	6	+7	16
2	Sporting JAX	7	12	10	+2	11
3	DC Power W	7	11	8	+3	11
4	Dallas Trinity W	7	9	11	-2	10
5	Lexington W	5	8	3	+5	9
6	Tampa Bay Sun W	5	8	7	+1	8
7	Fort Lauderdale United W	6	4	10	-6	3
8	Brooklyn W	6	4	14	-10	3