Statistics / Football / USA. USL Super League / Dallas Trinity W vs Tampa Bay Sun W

Dallas Trinity W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Statistics & Analysis

Dallas Trinity W Dallas Trinity W
Aug 16, 2026 - 00:30
1 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 85%
Tampa Bay Sun W Tampa Bay Sun W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dallas Trinity W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3597275

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Dallas Trinity W 1–1 Tampa Bay Sun W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2), BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) by about 7.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dallas Trinity W (1X2) 40.5 51.2 -10.8
Draw (1X2) 29.4 26.4 +3.0
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) 30.1 22.4 +7.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.7 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.3 +0.5
BTTS Yes 54.2 50.0 +4.2
BTTS No 45.8 50.0 -4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.4%. The difference — about 7.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dallas Trinity W (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.83 1.83 0.0
BTTS No 1.83 1.83 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: USL Super League
  • Fixture: Dallas Trinity W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Dallas Trinity W 1.41 — Tampa Bay Sun W 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Dallas Trinity W & Tampa Bay Sun W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
USL Super League USL Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Carolina Ascent W 7 5 1 1 16
2 DC Power W 7 3 2 2 11
3 Sporting JAX 7 3 2 2 11
4 Dallas Trinity W 7 3 1 3 10
5 Lexington W 5 3 0 2 9
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 5 2 2 1 8
7 Fort Lauderdale United W 6 1 0 5 3
8 Brooklyn W 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Carolina Ascent W 7 13 6 +7 16
2 Sporting JAX 7 12 10 +2 11
3 DC Power W 7 11 8 +3 11
4 Dallas Trinity W 7 9 11 -2 10
5 Lexington W 5 8 3 +5 9
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 5 8 7 +1 8
7 Fort Lauderdale United W 6 4 10 -6 3
8 Brooklyn W 6 4 14 -10 3
USL Super League USA. USL Super League Predictions