East Fife vs Montrose Statistics & Analysis

East Fife

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 77%

Montrose

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Montrose Montrose ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8680744

Closing Odds 2.79

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Montrose win · East Fife 1–2 Montrose

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Montrose (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Montrose (1X2) by about 3.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
East Fife (1X2)	34.2	37.4	-3.1
Draw (1X2)	29.7	29.8	-0.1
Montrose (1X2)	36.1	32.8	+3.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.8	+2.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.2	-2.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Montrose (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.8%. The difference — about 3.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
East Fife (1X2)	2.45	2.45
Draw (1X2)	3.07	3.07
Montrose (1X2)	2.79	2.79
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: League One
Fixture: East Fife vs Montrose
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): East Fife 1.28 — Montrose 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +1.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ross County	7	6	1	0	19
2	Hamilton Academical	7	6	1	0	19
3	Montrose	8	5	0	3	15
4	East Kilbride	8	4	1	3	13
5	Alloa Athletic	8	2	3	3	9
6	Airdrie United	8	2	3	3	9
7	East Fife	8	1	5	2	8
8	Peterhead	8	2	1	5	7
9	Cove Rangers	8	1	2	5	5
10	Queen of the South	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ross County	7	22	4	+18	19
2	Hamilton Academical	7	16	1	+15	19
3	East Kilbride	8	14	12	+2	13
4	Montrose	8	13	13	0	15
5	Alloa Athletic	8	8	6	+2	9
6	East Fife	8	7	7	0	8
7	Airdrie United	8	6	11	-5	9
8	Peterhead	8	6	14	-8	7
9	Queen of the South	8	6	24	-18	4
10	Cove Rangers	8	5	11	-6	5