Statistics / Football / Scotland. League One / East Kilbride vs Queen of the South

East Kilbride vs Queen of the South Statistics & Analysis

East Kilbride East Kilbride
Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00
5 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 33%
Queen of the South Queen of the South
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Queen of the South East Kilbride ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1811419

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result East Kilbride win · East Kilbride 5–1 Queen of the South
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Queen of the South (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Queen of the South (1X2) by about 11.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
East Kilbride (1X2) 33.4 53.1 -19.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 21.3 +8.3
Queen of the South (1X2) 37.0 25.6 +11.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.5 -9.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.5 +9.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Queen of the South (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 11.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
East Kilbride (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.36 4.36 0.0
Queen of the South (1X2) 3.62 3.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: East Kilbride vs Queen of the South
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): East Kilbride 1.26 — Queen of the South 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +17.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ross County 7 6 1 0 19
2 Hamilton Academical 7 6 1 0 19
3 Montrose 8 5 0 3 15
4 East Kilbride 8 4 1 3 13
5 Alloa Athletic 8 2 3 3 9
6 Airdrie United 8 2 3 3 9
7 East Fife 8 1 5 2 8
8 Peterhead 8 2 1 5 7
9 Cove Rangers 8 1 2 5 5
10 Queen of the South 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ross County 7 22 4 +18 19
2 Hamilton Academical 7 16 1 +15 19
3 East Kilbride 8 14 12 +2 13
4 Montrose 8 13 13 0 15
5 Alloa Athletic 8 8 6 +2 9
6 East Fife 8 7 7 0 8
7 Airdrie United 8 6 11 -5 9
8 Peterhead 8 6 14 -8 7
9 Queen of the South 8 6 24 -18 4
10 Cove Rangers 8 5 11 -6 5
League One Scotland. League One Predictions