Statistics / Football / Scotland. Championship / Morton vs Raith Rovers

Morton vs Raith Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Morton Morton
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 78%
Raith Rovers Raith Rovers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11239451

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Raith Rovers win · Morton 1–2 Raith Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Morton vs Raith Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Morton 1.25 — Raith Rovers 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 22
2 Raith Rovers 8 4 2 2 14
3 Livingston 8 4 1 3 13
4 Partick 7 3 3 1 12
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 12
6 Arbroath 8 3 2 3 11
7 Inverness CT 8 2 4 2 10
8 Ayr Utd 8 2 2 4 8
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4
10 Morton 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 12 2 +10 22
2 Livingston 8 12 7 +5 13
3 Raith Rovers 8 11 5 +6 14
4 Inverness CT 8 9 9 0 10
5 Ayr Utd 8 7 9 -2 8
6 Dunfermline 7 6 4 +2 12
7 Arbroath 8 6 10 -4 11
8 Partick 7 5 2 +3 12
9 Queen's Park 8 4 13 -9 4
10 Morton 8 4 15 -11 1
Championship Scotland. Championship Predictions