Statistics / Football / Scotland. Championship / Partick vs Raith Rovers

Partick vs Raith Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Partick Partick
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 49%
Raith Rovers Raith Rovers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Partick Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8680557

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Partick 0–0 Raith Rovers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.15 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Raith Rovers (1X2) by about 7.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Partick (1X2) 39.5 48.3 -8.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.4 +1.1
Raith Rovers (1X2) 31.0 23.4 +7.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.3 +3.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.7 -3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Raith Rovers (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 7.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Partick (1X2) 1.95 1.97 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.35 +0.7
Raith Rovers (1X2) 4.04 4.07 -0.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.1 2.15 -1.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.71 +1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Partick vs Raith Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Partick 1.39 — Raith Rovers 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 49.6% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +3.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 22
2 Raith Rovers 8 4 2 2 14
3 Livingston 8 4 1 3 13
4 Partick 7 3 3 1 12
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 12
6 Arbroath 8 3 2 3 11
7 Inverness CT 8 2 4 2 10
8 Ayr Utd 8 2 2 4 8
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4
10 Morton 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 12 2 +10 22
2 Livingston 8 12 7 +5 13
3 Raith Rovers 8 11 5 +6 14
4 Inverness CT 8 9 9 0 10
5 Ayr Utd 8 7 9 -2 8
6 Dunfermline 7 6 4 +2 12
7 Arbroath 8 6 10 -4 11
8 Partick 7 5 2 +3 12
9 Queen's Park 8 4 13 -9 4
10 Morton 8 4 15 -11 1
Championship Scotland. Championship Predictions