Statistics / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian Statistics & Analysis

Falkirk Falkirk
Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45
2 0.89
1 1.66
xG Accuracy: 62%
Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Heart Of Midlothian Falkirk ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4224734

Closing Odds 3.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Falkirk win · Falkirk 2–1 Heart Of Midlothian
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Heart Of Midlothian (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Falkirk (1X2) 18.6 25.8 -7.3
Draw (1X2) 27.4 26.6 +0.8
Heart Of Midlothian (1X2) 54.0 47.6 +6.4
Over 2.5 goals 46.9 54.9 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 53.1 45.1 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 53.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.1%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Falkirk (1X2) 3.74 3.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Heart Of Midlothian (1X2) 2.03 2.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.14 2.14 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 18.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away 54.0%
  • xG (showing): Falkirk 0.89 — Heart Of Midlothian 1.66 (total xG ≈ 2.55)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 50.8% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +20.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.2% · No 50.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
3 Heart Of Midlothian 7 4 1 2 13
4 Dundee 7 3 1 3 10
5 ST Mirren 7 3 1 3 10
6 ST Johnstone 7 2 2 3 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 14 4 +10 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Dundee 7 9 7 +2 10
4 ST Johnstone 7 9 10 -1 8
5 Dundee Utd 7 9 11 -2 8
6 Motherwell 7 9 11 -2 8
7 Rangers 7 8 4 +4 16
8 ST Mirren 7 8 9 -1 10
9 Hibernian 7 8 11 -3 7
10 Aberdeen 7 7 8 -1 8
11 Falkirk 7 6 9 -3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 6 15 -9 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 11.1 1.9 +9.2 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 7.1 4.5 +2.6 13
3 Motherwell 7 7.2 4.8 +2.4 8
4 ST Mirren 7 6.2 4.7 +1.5 10
5 Rangers 7 5.3 3.8 +1.5 16
6 ST Johnstone 7 6.7 5.6 +1.1 8
7 Hibernian 7 7.8 7.3 +0.5 7
8 Dundee Utd 7 6.9 8.3 -1.4 8
9 Aberdeen 7 3.4 5.4 -2.0 8
10 Dundee 7 5.6 8.7 -3.1 10
11 Falkirk 7 1.7 5.3 -3.6 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 3.1 11.9 -8.8 5